In the "Ticker" row below select the column which represents stock tickers in your CSV file. Column will be shown in color.
There are three rows below that represent quantity of stock: "Percent", "Shares" and "Value". Select a column in your CSV data which has any quantity of your stocks that matches one of these three rows. For example if there is a column in your CSV that has percentage of each stock in the portfolio click on intersection of that column and "Percent" row. Column and corresponding row will be shown in color.
"Ignore rows" checkboxes - used to mark rows in the CSV input to be ignored. 'Validate/Load' button marks row as "Ignored" if it can not process it. This box unchecks automatically if any changes are made in any input field in the row.
When ticker and quantity columns in CSV input are selected press "Validate/Load" button on the top left.
After pressing "Validate/Load" button: if no problem in validation is found data will be loaded into underlying portfolio to backtest. If validator found some problems it tries to correct them automatically by checking "Ignore row" box in problem row to skip it. Please review changes, make necessary updates and press "Validate/Load" again.
For failed rows in your CSV data you can get more information for the problem for each row by hovering mouse cursor over sign. That should display some additional information. Also each error is shown in special color, and each color is explained in "Legend" area.
Portfolio Backtest Tool - this tool allows you to create various portfolios of stocks and check their historical behaviour, analyze portfolio past returns and compare portfolios between each other.
Please make your selection in the desired portfolio parameters below and press "Add new portfolio" button.
You can bookmark this link or share it - clicking on it will bring you to the same portfolios setup as you have here.
Press button on the left of the link to share it.
Press button on the left of the link to copy it to clipboard.
Monte Carlo Simulator
Monte Carlo simulation helps you understand the range of possible future prices for a stock based on its historical volatility. It runs thousands of scenarios to show you the probability of different outcomes.
Inputs:
(On Top)
Select/Unselect all portfolios
(Every row)
Select/Unselect individual portfolio
/
Hide/Show unselected portfolios
Run simulation for selected portfolios
/
Hide/Show Monte Carlo results panel
/
Show/Hide Monte Carlo chart
Monte Carlo Simulator, press to expand
Years to test
History years to analyse
Volatility scaling
Down volatility scaling
Returns multiplier
Asset
Monte Carlo Simulation Results
Monte Carlo Simulation results:
Results pane shows expected final portfolio value and expected total withdrawals amount based on historical returns. Max drawdown and Min dradown are calculated from the simulation results.
10th percentile pane is the worst case scenario (Only 10% results are equal or worse than that).
90th percentile pane is the best case scenario (Only 10% results are better than that, 90% results are equal or worse than that).
Withdrawals fields in percentile panes represent expected total withdrawals from portfolio. Total withdrawals are split into withdrawals from dividens (if divdends are not re-invested) and withdrawals from selling portfolio assets (portfolio withdrawals).
First and last year withdrawal fields in percentile panes shows expected withdrawals on the first and last years of tested interval. If last year withdrawal is 0.00$ - that means portfolio did not survive to the end of interval in respective percantale.
Stocks
Portfolio final values/drawdowns
Errors and warnings
Performance
Performance Diagram
Performance Diagram shows performance for each portfolio.
Notes:
Each portfolio curve is displayed in its own color, there are up to 10 different colors, if more than 10 portfolios is displayed colors will start to repeat.
Color of each portfolio is duplicated below in "Portfolio Summary" table "Portfolio" column.
You can remove some portfolios from the diagram for better visibility. Just click on the rectangle box on the top of diagram for corresponding portfolio to get that portfolio removed/added back.
You can use logarithmic scale (instead of linear) for portfolio price. Click on "Logarithmic scale" checkbox below to switch to logarithmic scale. Uncheck the box to switch back to linear scale.
Set order of how end labels are displayed/overlap. This option only affects labels that overlap, it will make them overlap in the different order. Cycles through the following states:
Natural order. Labels are displayed in the order portfolios are created.
From high to low order.
Opposite to natural order. Labels are displayed in the order opposite to the order portfolios are created.
From low to high order.
Annual Growth
Annual Income
Dividends and distributions
Annual Withdrawals
Sector Allocations
Portfolio(s) Holdings
Portfolio(s) stocks
For funds we show top 10 holdings here and sum them with the similar holding form the rest of portfolio
Portfolio correlations
Correlations are calculated for period between "Start date" and "End date" for all assets, so result for each asset can vary depending on other assets start and end dates and manually selected start and end dates as well. Select "Min date" in "Start date" and "Max date" in "End date" boxes above for best results. Minimum 5 years interval required.
Select columns to display
Portfolio Summary
Portfolio summary table represents summary results of the tested portfolios.
Notes:
Cells in the left column "Portfolio" have the same color as corresponding portfolio results on "Portfolio Performance" diagram.
Dividend score column presents our dividend score rating which is based on the consecutive number of years when company did not reduce dividend payments. 1 is lowest rating (Very Unsafe) marked red, 5 is highest rating (Very Safe) marked green.
Stocks
Total dividend left after re-invest and withdrawals. Amount shown will be $0 if you chose to re-invest or withdraw dividends.
Dividend score is based on the consecutive number of years when company or fund did not reduce their dividend payments (3 previous years are used for comparison). The rating is as follows:
5 - Very Safe (30 or more years)
4 - Safe (15 years)
3 - Somewhat safe (10 years)
2 - Unsafe (6 years)
1 - Very Unsafe (1 or 0 years)
Remember: Past performance does not guarantee future results, even if stock/fund performed well in the past there is no guarantee it will do the same in the future. So our dividend score rating only shows past performance and does not guarantee future results.
Disclaimer: We are NOT a registered investment, financial or tax advisor, rating agency or a broker/dealer. All investment/financial opinions expressed by this site are from our own research and experience and are intended as educational material. Although best efforts are made to ensure that all information, data and calculations provided by this website are accurate and up to date, accuracy is not guaranteed and results can differ from the real life results. We hold NO responsibility or liability for any errors, losses or damages incurred as a result of any individual actions based on the provided information. Nothing on this website should be or is meant to be understood as a recommendation, and we do NOT advise making investment decisions based solely on information provided by this website. Always do your own research and contact a professional if necessary before making any financial decision.
Remember: Past performance does not guarantee future results, even if stock/fund performed well in the past there is no guarantee it will do the same in the future.
Stocks4Income